The Pacific Northwest’s Green Energy Ambitions: A Gridlocked Reality

Oregon and Washington have long been heralded as pioneers in environmental stewardship, setting ambitious goals to decarbonize their energy systems. However, a recent investigation by Oregon Public Broadcasting (OPB) and ProPublica reveals a critical bottleneck hindering these aspirations: the inability to expand and modernize the region’s energy delivery infrastructure.

Both states have enacted legislation mandating a transition to carbon-neutral electricity within the next two decades. Yet, despite these progressive policies, the region lags behind others in integrating new renewable energy sources. For instance, Iowa, with a similar population and wind potential, generates three times more wind power than Oregon.

A primary obstacle is the region's aging transmission infrastructure. BPA, a federal agency established in 1937, owns and operates approximately 75% of the Pacific Northwest's high-voltage transmission lines. Its bureaucratic structure and self-funded model have led to a sluggish pace in approving and constructing necessary grid upgrades. Since 2015, of the 469 large renewable projects that applied to connect to BPA's grid, only one has received approval.

Slow-moving energy infrastructure development in a fast-moving decarbonization environment has tangible repercussions. The Pacific Northwest faces increasing electricity demand, driven by the proliferation of data centers and the electrification of transportation and buildings. Without sufficient renewable energy integration, the region often resorts to importing electricity at high costs during peak demand periods, leading to a 50% increase in utility rates for major Oregon customers over the past five years.

For instance, communities like the Yakama Nation, which secured a $32 million federal grant for a solar project, encounter insurmountable barriers due to BPA's projected $144 million cost for necessary substation upgrades and a protracted timeline extending beyond 2027. These challenges jeopardize the viability of such projects, especially in areas where residents already face economic hardships.

Recognizing the pressing need for infrastructure enhancement, BPA has unveiled plans for approximately $5 billion in grid upgrades, encompassing 23 proposed projects. These initiatives aim to bolster transmission capacity, accommodate the integration of renewable energy sources, and meet the region's escalating electricity demands. However, these projects are in various stages of development and are subject to environmental reviews and permitting processes that could delay their implementation.

Impediments to the necessary expansion of the region’s energy infrastructure go well beyond BPA. In a related OPB story, former State Senator Reuven Carlyle, one of the primary architects of the Climate Commitment Act, Washington State’s signature carbon reduction scheme, was quoted saying, “[I]t’s embarrassing that Oregon and Washington, which are such good-looking states, simply can’t practically build anything in terms of energy.”

Separately, the global consultancy Guidehouse completed a report synthesizing the key findings from 19 energy-related in the Pacific Northwest, including regional forecasts, adequacy assessments, and extreme weather retrospectives.  They reached several findings, including:

• The increasing interdependence of the gas and electric systems necessitates enhanced coordination to mitigate the risk of cascading failures. The electric grid is becoming more reliant on natural gas-fired generation to meet peak demand and compensate for the intermittency of renewable energy sources. Siloed planning in gas and electric systems, has a detrimental effect on overall energy reliability. Planning often occurs in isolation from considerations related to natural gas supply, storage, and transportation.
  

• Natural gas played a vital role in maintaining electricity supply during extreme cold snaps. The January 2024 cold snap exposed critical vulnerabilities in the Western energy system when natural gas derates coincided with load shedding, demonstrating that reliable electric service during extreme weather increasingly depends on planning that traditional siloed forecasting methods fail to address.
  

• Electrification of heating is also creating unprecedented weather sensitivity in demand forecasting—as temperature-dependent loads shift from gas to electric systems—requiring fundamentally new integrated modeling approaches that anticipate resource adequacy needs across both systems during extreme events.
  

• Enhancing system resilience requires addressing vulnerabilities related to natural gas fuel supply. Fuel assurance is vital for grid stability and reliability during extreme weather events. Even under decarbonization pathways scenarios natural gas generation flexibility remains the essential backstop during extreme weather events when variable renewables cannot meet demand. Even with emerging technologies like battery and hydrogen storage.
  

The path to a sustainable and reliable energy future for the Pacific Northwest necessitates a concerted effort to modernize the region’s energy delivery infrastructure. This includes streamlining BPA's approval processes, securing funding for infrastructure projects, more efficient permitting processes and improved collaboration among federal, state, and local entities. Without addressing these systemic issues, the region's clean energy goals may remain unattainable, leaving communities vulnerable to energy insecurity and economic strain.

Pacific Northwest policymakers aspire to lead in the transition to renewable energy, but confronting and overcoming these infrastructural challenges will be paramount in transforming hope into reality.