NWGA’s 2018 Gas Outlook
Note: We are working to complete the full Outlook study, which will be published in January 2019. In the meantime, we have posted the Appendices that include updated data tables and a webinar link for an overview of the 2018 Gas Outlook.
To view the appendices click here and to watch the webinar presentation for the 2018 Gas Outlook Study, go to the Northwest Gas Association’s YouTube channel by clicking here or click the video link below.
In this study, we examine several dynamics affecting Pacific Northwest natural gas consumers. The Outlook relies primarily on external, publicly available resources for information on natural gas supply prospects and commodity prices. Regional demand and capacity data are drawn from NWGA member company planning processes, including the Integrated Resource Plans that our members are required to file with utility commissions.
The study provides a consensus industry perspective on the current and projected natural gas supply, prices, demand and delivery capabilities in the Pacific Northwest through the 2027/28 heating year (Nov–Oct). For purposes of this report, the Pacific Northwest includes British Columbia (BC), Idaho, Oregon, and Washington.
Research by E3 Takes In-Depth Look at Decarbonization with Focus on Coldest Days
PORTLAND, Ore., Dec. 04, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — A new study commissioned by NW Natural and conducted by independent consulting firm, Energy and Environmental Economics (E3), shows natural gas plays a pivotal role in helping the region meet dramatic emission reduction goals most affordably and reliably.
To date, all “deep decarbonization” studies agree that getting to an 80% carbon reduction goal by 2050 will be challenging and must involve using energy more efficiently, ramping up renewable resources, electrifying passenger vehicles, and aggressively developing biofuels, including renewable natural gas. But this is the first time a closer look has been taken at how energy needs can be met to serve homes and businesses on the coldest winter days in the Pacific Northwest.
The new research shows that by adding 25% renewable natural gas (RNG) into the existing natural gas system and delivering it to heat homes directly (versus using it to generate electricity), the region can achieve its climate goals without a substantial build-out of new power plants. A report released in September by the Oregon Department of Energy shows the total amount of RNG that can be produced from the state’s waste streams, (including wastewater, landfills, animal, food and wood waste), far exceeds that amount.
“Renewable natural gas takes waste streams that produce emissions and puts them to use as clean energy, dramatically reducing greenhouse gasses that contribute to climate change,” said David H. Anderson, president and CEO of NW Natural. “The good news is that we already have plans in place to put RNG into our pipeline system, which is one of the most modern in the nation.”
NW Natural hired E3 to conduct an economy-wide deep decarbonization study for Oregon and Washington, based on E3’s experience pioneering this type of work in California and throughout the U.S. A key question addressed in this study is how NW Natural’s system can be used to ensure reliable energy on the coldest winter days while dramatically driving down greenhouse gas emissions over the next three decades.
“The natural gas system in the Pacific Northwest delivers more energy than the region’s entire hydroelectric system. It’s a critical asset to lowering emissions and it’s already in place,” added Anderson. “Today, natural gas sales to our residential and commercial customers account for about 5% of Oregon’s emissions. And with the innovations we’re already pursuing, like renewable natural gas, NW Natural is poised to play a vital role in helping the communities we serve meet their climate goals and achieve deep decarbonization.”
More information on the E3 study, “Pacific Northwest Pathways to 2050,” can be found at
https://www.ethree.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/E3_Pacific_Northwest_Pathways_to_2050.pdf. The Oregon Department of Energy 2018 Report to the Legislature, “Biogas and Renewable Natural Gas Inventory SB 334 (2017),” can be found at https://www.oregon.gov/energy/Data-and-Reports/Documents/2018-RNG-Inventory-Report.pdf. Additional information from NW Natural can be found at www.lesswecan.com.
About NW Natural
NW Natural provides natural gas service to approximately two million people in more than 140 communities through 740,000 meters in Oregon and Southwest Washington with one of the most modern pipeline systems in the nation. It consistently leads the industry with high J.D. Power & Associates customer satisfaction scores.
NW Natural is part of Northwest Natural Holding Company, (NYSE: NWN) (NW Natural Holdings), which is headquartered in Portland, Oregon and owns NW Natural, NW Natural Water Company, and other business interests and activities.
NW Natural is currently constructing a 2.5 Bcf regulated gas storage expansion of its 16 Bcf facility in Oregon to support renewables. NW Natural Holdings’ subsidiaries own and operate 31 Bcf of underground gas storage capacity.
NW Natural Water provides water distribution service to more than 17,000 people through 5,300 meters. To date, NW Natural Water has acquired four water distribution systems with one additional acquisition pending. Cumulatively, the company has committed approximately $67 million in the water and wastewater industry for nearly 16,700 connections in the Pacific Northwest.
Media Contact: Melissa Moore, 503-220-2436, email@example.com
Dan Kirschner, NWGA Executive Director, will present the updates to the 2018 Outlook Study on the November 15 webinar.
The Outlook relies primarily on external, publicly available resources for information on natural gas supply prospects and commodity prices. Regional demand and capacity data are drawn from NWGA member company planning processes, including the Integrated Resource Plan that our members are required to file with utility commissions.
To register, click here.
The October webinar focuses on natural gas for transportation. Transportation is a leading source of climate change and air quality pollutants. Introducing cleaner medium and heavy-duty vehicles to the transportation sector offers the best path towards a cleaner future. Natural gas vehicles, especially those powered by renewable natural gas, is ready to step up and usher us into that future.
Did you know that “99% of the environmental benefit of switching from diesel city buses to electric vehicles can be achieved for a fraction of the cost by switching instead to natural gas vehicles powered by RNG.”
Join us by registering here.
Natural Gas Fleets 101
Natural gas industry leaders invite you to attend a luncheon on September 5 from 11:30 a.m. to 2 p.m. with presentations on the benefits of using natural gas for fleets.
Interested in natural gas vehicles and fleets? The NW Alliance for Clean Transportation will present the basics in the natural gas vehicles 101. Curious about how natural gas can improve your fleets? Trillium will dispel the myths around natural gas vehicles and give insight on how natural gas can benefit your fleets. Do you want to understand the basics of renewable natural gas (RNG) and how it will benefit your fleets? Join us for lunch and come away with a better understanding of how compressed natural gas and renewable natural gas work and can improve your fleet. Register here by August 29.
YES!! …even if it is just a small flower bed? Yes…what about just installing a post? Yes…what if I hire a landscaper or contractor to do the work? Yes, discuss it and make sure that 811 is called, even if you have to do it yourself.
Why bother, it will slow my project down? Digging without knowing the approximate location of underground utilities can result in damage to natural gas, electric, communications, water, and sewer lines, which can lead to service disruptions, serious injuries, and costly repairs. An underground utility line is damaged once every six minutes nationwide because someone decided to dig without first calling 811, according to data collected by Common Ground Alliance (CGA). The CGA is dedicated to protecting underground utility lines and the safety of people who dig near them, collects information from utility owners throughout the United States to measure the scope of damages nationwide.
Call before you dig, it so important it is a federal law to call 811 at least two business days before digging.
Every time you dig follow these steps:
- Notify – call 811.
- Wait – utilities will be marked out in 2-3 days.
- Confirm -that all affected utility operators have responded to your request by comparing the marks to the list of utilities the one-call center notified. If they are, dig safely if they are not, call again.
- Respect the marks -State laws generally prohibit the use of mechanized equipment within 18-24 inches of a marked utility, which is called the “tolerance zone” (click here for information from your state).
- Dig Safely – Avoid digging near the marks (within 18-24 inches on all sides, depending on state law), consider moving your project to another part of your yard.
Making a call to 811 is the easiest way to make sure you keep your communities safe and connected. Data shows that when you call 811 the appropriate amount of time before digging, you have a less than 1% chance of striking a buried utility line.
Guest Opinion in the July 13, 2018, Oregonian
Jessica Vega Pederson is right: it is time for Tri-Met to continue its tradition as a leader in our community by eliminating their diesel fleet (“Portland needs TriMet to prioritize electric buses,” July 4). Unfortunately, she and many others get it wrong on how to get it done. Relying on overpriced and underperforming electric bus technology will only set us back in our goal of eliminating harmful diesel emissions. We should refocus on natural gas-powered buses, and explore operating those buses on recovered methane — called ‘renewable natural gas’ — from Portland’s wastewater treatment facility (“Portland plans to turn ‘poop to power,” April 20).
There is no way around it: Oregon has a diesel problem. Transportation is Oregon’s largest source of greenhouse gas emission. Diesel-powered trucks and buses make up a third of the on-road transportation emissions. Not only do these emissions harm our region’s climate goals, but they are toxic pollutants that cause smog, acid rain, and many dangerous health conditions. We are all affected by diesel pollution, but especially the most vulnerable populations of children, elderly and the sick.
The best place to start in solving this problem is by replacing the 700 diesel buses that zigzag through the heart of our metro area. The conversation is already occurring, but it has largely focused on one limiting question: How soon can we electrify the bus fleet?
Los Angeles Metro was faced with this same problem. The LA Basin in the ’90s had some of the worst air quality problems in the world, and their 2,500-diesel bus fleet was a large contributor. Their solution: move to near-zero emission natural gas engines fueled by renewable natural gas, which offers up to 115 percent reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and 99.9 percent air quality pollutant reductions. Their fleet is no longer a significant polluter, and they have saved their customers money on fuel and maintenance costs at the same time. This is a home run, and Portland should take note.
The time to act is now. Every day we wait for electric bus technology to be ready is a day that we make our air quality problems worse. Natural gas buses are proven, affordable and ready to tackle our air quality and climate issues today.
Director of Policy and Operations
NW Alliance for Clean Transporation
Thank you to all the attendees of the 15th Annual Energy Conference. The surveys we received back will be useful in preparing for next year’s conference. Presentations from this year are available under the energy conference tab or you may click here.
A final thanks to all this year’s sponsors: Platinum sponsors: IGI Resources/BP and Calpine Energy Solutions. Gold sponsors: United Energy Trading, LLC. and Van Ness Feldman, LLP. Silver sponsors: Cost Management Services, Inc., Jordan Cove LNG, PGE, Shell Energy North America, and Stoel Rives, LLP. Bronze sponsors: Black & Veatch, Brubaker & Associates Inc., Cable Huston, LLP, Creative Lighting, Davison Van Cleve, Energy Strategies, NIPPC, and PacifiCorp. Promotional Partners: Oregon Business and Industry (OBI), Colorado Oil & Gas Association, Energy News Data, and the NW Environmental Business Council.
IGI REources/BP and Calpine Energy Solutions have already secured platinum sponsorships for 2019 Annual Energy Conference. If you are interested in securing your sponsorship for next year, click here to fill out and return your commitment form.
The NW Alliance for Clean Transportation became official with its launch on Tuesday, April 17. The Alliance, which is supported by the Northwest Gas Association, is an advocacy group that aims to bring more awareness to the role that natural gas vehicles have in a clean energy future.
The transportation sector accounts for nearly half of the emissions in the Pacific Northwest. Of those emissions, an outsized share goes to medium and heavy-duty on-road trucking. These emissions are responsible for a myriad of health impacts including an increase in asthma and other respiratory illnesses.
Fortunately, there is good news: natural gas vehicles are a ready-made solution that is capable of nearly eliminating these air pollutants, can provide the power necessary to haul heavy loads long distances, is cost-effective and is a proven technology.
Additionally, replacing dirty diesel engines with clean burning ultra-low-NOx natural gas vehicles provides a greater demand and market for renewable natural gas. Renewable natural gas, or RNG, is gas that has been recovered from a source that is otherwise considered a waste stream. This includes garbage landfills, wastewater treatment facilities, dairies, or other methane emitting sources. Collecting the methane emissions from these sources and repurposing it as a transportation fuel is by far the most environmentally friendly option for transportation, and renewable natural gas is perfectly compatible with current natural gas engines.
Please visit www.nwalliance.net to learn more about the new organization and get involved.
AGA launched the Your Energy campaign in 2017 to help provide a platform for the millions of people who use natural gas to speak up about the benefits that natural gas offers our environment and their way of life.
This week, we have the AGA’s Jennifer O’Shea on hand to discuss the campaign, and tell us more about the campaign’s objectives and reach, and plans for the future.
More information can be accessed at www.yourenergy.com.
Jennifer O’Shea is the Vice President of Communications for the American Gas Association’s (AGA). In this role, O’Shea develops and implements communications strategies to promote natural gas and its applications to key stakeholders including media, industry leaders, Members of Congress and consumers.
What: April Webinar: Your Energy Campaign
Where: Online Only
When: Thursday, April 19th
Register: Click here to Register
On Thursday, March 22, Governor Jay Inslee signed into law a bill that will encourage the increased production of renewable natural gas (RNG) as an energy source for Washington State. HB 2580 passed the Legislature just hours before the end of legislative session on March 8th. Nearly unanimous legislative backing for the bill signals strong interest in and support for further development and adoption of this renewable energy resource.
“As we transition to a clean-energy future, this [bill] will help us promote production of renewable natural gas from landfills, wastewater treatment plants, food processing, and agriculture, while also helping create jobs and promote rural economic development across our state,” said Governor Inslee as he signed the bill.
“What could be better than turning waste into useful energy?” asked Dan Kirschner, Executive Director of the NWGA. “It reminds me of the Mr. Fusion Home Energy Reactor in the movie Back to the Future.”
The effective date for the new law is July 1, 2018. It encourages the expansion RNG production through the use of tax incentives and a suite of other tools including an inventory of potential RNG supply and associated costs; voluntary gas quality standards for injecting RNG into the natural gas system, and additional policy recommendations to promote RNG development.
“By supporting renewable natural gas project development, Washington’s leaders are supporting the creation of clean energy sector jobs, improved air quality and public health,” said Johannes Escudero, CEO of the Coalition for Renewable Natural Gas (RNG Coalition). “Methane mitigation, carbon sequestration and decarbonization of our existing natural gas infrastructure occur with each new RNG project.”
Bill Edmonds, Director of Environmental Management and Sustainability at NW Natural said, “ This bill is an important step to better understanding the potential for RNG in the region. While we still need to address some of the barriers to greater RNG natural gas deployment, the tax incentives are a solid step in the right direction.”
“The Northwest Gas Association (NWGA) thanks, Governor Inslee for seeking this important measure, and Rep. Jeff Morris for being its champion through the legislative process,” said Kirschner.
Natural gas warms us when it’s chilly out. It quickly and efficiently heats water after a hot shower. Memories are made at backyard bar-b-ques over a gas grill with family and friends.
In addition to delivering warmth and comfort, natural gas helps us address critical issues like climate change. Northwest Gas Association members (NWGA) are committed to addressing climate change and maintain that natural gas is a climate solution.
States and provinces across the Pacific Northwest are currently crafting climate action policies to address climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). Natural gas – a clean, low-cost and abundant energy resource – is already reducing GHGs in our region and across North America.
Regional climate action policy proposals include a tax (WA) or a cap (OR) on carbon emissions. A tax is relatively straightforward to administer. British Columbia has a carbon tax that’s been in place for several years. The theory is that increasing the cost of consuming or producing something will result in less of it being consumed or produced. However, emission reductions are not guaranteed in a carbon tax scheme, though higher energy costs are. Click here to see how a carbon tax at certain levels might affect an average consumer’s bill.
An emissions cap, on the other hand, mandates a certain level of emissions but can be complex to administer. California has an emissions cap in place, though it has not yet been fully implemented. While an emissions cap specifically limits the amount of carbon that can be emitted, the costs of compliance are uncertain until they’ve been incurred.
The NWGA maintains that the following are vital attributes to include in a climate action policy. It must:
- Accommodate the ongoing need of NWGA members to invest in and maintain system safety and reliability;
- Preserve customer energy choice and affordability for families and the businesses that employ them;
- Acknowledge and accommodate the regulatory obligation of utilities to serve customer demand for natural gas;
- Be transparent, predictable and easily understood by the ultimate consumer; and
- Be consistent from jurisdiction to jurisdiction.
Last year at this time, the Pacific Northwest was experiencing its coldest winter in 24 years; this year the East coast is experiencing the cold “bomb cyclone.” Luckily, we can observe from our warm, safe homes. Safety is the top priority of your natural gas company, and like the tango, it takes a partner to be safe. You are our safety partner.
As your partner, we want to give you the facts on carbon monoxide (CO) and prepare you should you ever experience a CO incident. Fact: CO is a colorless, odorless, tasteless gas that is produced by burning wood, propane, charcoal, natural gas or by letting a gasoline engine or generator run in an enclosed space.
Fact: CO poisoning is caused by improperly ventilated appliances or engines. The enclosed space may allow carbon monoxide to accumulate to dangerous levels. That’s why you should never operate a gas or briquette grill, a generator or propane heater indoors.
Fact: Warning signs are similar to having the flu, such as dull headaches, weakness, dizziness, confusion, drowsiness, nausea, and vomiting. A clue would be if more than one person is becoming ill at the same time since the flu takes a few days to be passed from one to another. If symptoms begin in one space and go away soon after leaving the area, that may be carbon monoxide poisoning.
Prevention: Install a carbon monoxide detector according to the manufacturer’s instructions. Keep vents and chimneys open when burning, and make sure they are properly vented, especially if you have had any construction or roofing done. Start your car only after you open the garage door and move into the driveway before closing the door.
Prevention: Just like with your fire alarm, you need to make sure things are maintained and ready to serve you. Once a year, maybe when you replace the batteries in the fire alarm, ask your utility about getting a check-up on all your fuel-burning appliances. Keep your fireplace in good repair and get the flue cleaned once a year.
Action: If you suspect carbon monoxide poisoning, remove everyone including pets from the area and head to fresh air immediately. Contact your gas utility, call 911 and wait for clearance before entering your home.
The 20 latest Blog Posts
- 2018 Gas Outlook
- Study Shows Natural Gas Is Key to Reaching Northwest Emission Reduction Goals
- NWGA Board Member ob Description
- NWGA History
- Happy Thanksgiving!
- November 15: 2018 NWGA Outlook Update
- October 18 Webinar: Natural Gas for Transporation
- Natural Gas Fleets 101
- Do I Really Need to Call 811 Before I Dig?
- Portland needs cleaner transit, but electrification isn’t the answer
- 2018 Annual Energy Conference Presentations
- 2019 Annual Energy Conference Sponsorship Form
- 2018 NWGA Board of Directors
- 2018 Annual Energy Conference – Post Conference
- Welcome Northwest Alliance for Clean Transportation
- Join the Webinar on AGA’s “Your Energy Campaign”
- NWGA RNG Incentives Become Law in Washington State
- Banff Activities
- Climate Action in the Northwest
- Northwest Gas Association Climate Action Prinicples
- 2016 Annual Energy Conference – Post Conference
- 2017 Annual Energy Conference – Post Conference
- 2018 Annual Energy Conference
- 2018 Annual Energy Conference – Post Conference
- 2018 Gas Outlook
- 2019 Annual Energy Conference
- About the NWGA
- Annual Energy Conferences
- Avista Utilities
- FACT SHEETS
- GAS OUTLOOK
- Industry Events
- IRPs & Other Data
- ISSUE BRIEFS
- ISSUE BRIEFS
- Natural Gas Facts
- Natural Gas Supply Serving the Pacific Northwest
- Natural Gas Vehicles’ Emissions Data and Comparisons Fact Sheet
- Northwest Gas Association
- NWGA Board Manual
- Our Mission
- PNW Gas Landscape – Gas Power Convergence
- Quick Register
- State and Provincial Fact Sheets
- The Power of Natural Gas in the War on Carbon Emissions
- White Papers
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